{
  "Expert Analysis: A Tactical Pause": "## Expert Analysis: A Tactical Pause\n\n### The Architecture of a Temporary Truce\n\nAnalysts widely concur that the agreement reached between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping is not a comprehensive resolution to the trade war but rather a carefully constructed, temporary truce designed for short-term gains ([VietnamPlus, 2025a](https://www.vietnamplus.vn/cuoc-gap-thuong-dinh-my-trung-ben-le-apec-2025-diem-dung-chien-thuat-post1073899.vnp)). The very structure of the deal, with its explicit one-year timeframe for key provisions, underscores its nature as a tactical pause rather than a strategic peace. President Trump himself provided conflicting statements, first suggesting the deal would \"last a long time\" before clarifying, \"This is a one-year agreement, and we will extend it after that,\" a sentiment that reveals the built-in expectation of future renegotiation and potential instability ([Soha, 2025a](https://soha.vn/gap-truc-tiep-ong-tap-sau-6-nam-tong-thong-trump-tim-co-hoi-dinh-chien-thuong-mai-198251030111352927.htm)).\n\nThe deal focuses on what Professor Kam of the University of Technology Sydney described as the \"easier to solve\" issues, creating a transactional exchange of immediate concessions ([BBC News Tiếng Việt, 2025a](https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/articles/c5yd5g8jm48o.amp)). This approach allows both sides to claim victory without tackling the deeper, more intractable sources of conflict. The agreement's key components were a direct quid pro quo: the U.S. offered tariff relief in exchange for Chinese commitments on specific trade and law enforcement issues. This transactional nature is a hallmark of a temporary de-escalation, where mutual interests align for a brief period before underlying strategic competition re-emerges. Experts warn that precisely because the deal avoids the core disputes, any truce between the U.S. and China is unlikely to \"last forever\" ([BBC News Tiếng Việt, 2025a](https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/articles/c5yd5g8jm48o.amp)). The following table outlines the specific, time-bound concessions that form the foundation of this tactical pause.\n\n| U.S. Concessions | Chinese Concessions | Duration / Conditions | Source |\n| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |\n| Reduce tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, lowering the total average rate to approx. 47%. | Resume imports of U.S. soybeans (commitment for 12 million tons in the current crop year). | Not explicitly time-bound but subject to ongoing relations. | [VietnamPlus, 2025b](https://www.vietnamplus.vn/cuoc-gap-thuong-dinh-my-trung-ben-le-apec-2025-diem-dung-chien-thuat-post1073899.vnp) |\n| Reduce import tariffs on fentanyl-related items to 10%. | Increase enforcement against the illicit fentanyl trade. | Not explicitly time-bound but a key U.S. demand. | [Cand.com.vn, 2025](https://cand.com.vn/the-gioi-24h/ong-trump-danh-gia-cuoc-gap-voi-chu-tich-tap-tren-ca-diem-10-i786412) |\n| Temporarily halt new regulations targeting a specific Chinese subsidiary. | Suspend new restrictions on the export of strategic rare earth minerals. | One-year term, subject to renewal. | [Soha, 2025b](https://soha.vn/gap-truc-tiep-ong-tap-sau-6-nam-tong-thong-trump-tim-co-hoi-dinh-chien-thuong-mai-198251030111352927.htm) |\n| Suspend special port fees on Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports. | Reciprocal suspension of similar fees. | One-year term. | [Soha, 2025b](https://soha.vn/gap-truc-tiep-ong-tap-sau-6-nam-tong-thong-trump-tim-co-hoi-dinh-chien-thuong-mai-198251030111352927.htm) |\n\nThis framework, with its emphasis on one-year renewals, creates an environment of managed uncertainty. It provides immediate relief for businesses and markets but institutionalizes an annual cycle of high-stakes negotiations, ensuring that the trade conflict remains a central and recurring feature of the U.S.-China relationship.\n\n### Strategic Imperatives Driving De-escalation\n\nThe timing of the Busan summit and the resulting agreement was not accidental, according to analysts, but driven by pressing strategic and domestic imperatives for both Washington and Beijing. The meeting was seen as a necessary step to \"narrow the risks\" of any sudden, destabilizing decisions in the coming months, particularly as previous trade deals were set to expire on November 10, creating a hard deadline for action ([BBC News Tiếng Việt, 2025a](https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/articles/c5yd5g8jm48o.amp); [Viettimes, 2025](https://viettimes.vn/thuong-dinh-trumptap-o-han-quoc-co-hoi-cham-dut-chien-tranh-lanh-thuong-mai-my-trung-post191040.html)). For President Trump, the summit offered a chance to secure a tangible \"win\" to present to the American public, particularly farmers in key agricultural states who have been heavily impacted by the loss of the Chinese soybean market. The resumption of soybean purchases and China's commitments on fentanyl—a major domestic political issue in the U.S.—provide immediate, headline-grabbing results that align with Trump's desire for quick, demonstrable outcomes ([Cand.com.vn, 2025](https://cand.com.vn/the-gioi-24h/ong-trump-danh-gia-cuoc-gap-voi-chu-tich-tap-tren-ca-diem-10-i786412)).\n\nFor China, the motivations for a pause are equally compelling. The Chinese economy faces significant internal headwinds, and a reduction in U.S. tariffs, even a modest one, provides welcome relief to its export-oriented manufacturing sector. Furthermore, securing a one-year guarantee on the supply of rare earths and a suspension of new U.S. regulations provides a degree of predictability for its strategic industries ([Soha, 2025b](https://soha.vn/gap-truc-tiep-ong-tap-sau-6-nam-tong-thong-trump-tim-co-hoi-dinh-chien-thuong-mai-198251030111352927.htm)). The meeting itself, the first direct encounter between the two leaders in six years, serves a crucial diplomatic purpose for Beijing. It allows President Xi to project an image of stable, pragmatic leadership on the world stage, positioning China as a reasonable actor willing to negotiate and cooperate. This helps counter the narrative of escalating confrontation and provides Beijing with valuable time to pursue its long-term economic and technological goals without the immediate pressure of ever-increasing trade restrictions. Professor Tim Harcourt from the University of Technology Sydney framed the meeting in even broader terms, suggesting it was a pivotal moment to \"reshape globalization in the post-Covid era,\" indicating that both nations felt the pressure to stabilize a global system rocked by years of tariffs and uncertainty ([BBC News Tiếng Việt, 2025a](https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/articles/c5yd5g8jm48o.amp)).\n\n### Core Technological and Ideological Conflicts Unaddressed\n\nA key reason experts universally view the Busan agreement as a tactical pause is the conspicuous absence of any discussion on the most fundamental and contentious issues at the heart of the U.S.-China rivalry. The dialogue was carefully curated to focus on transactional trade items while deliberately sidestepping the deep-seated competition over technology, security, and ideology ([VietnamPlus, 2025b](https://www.vietnamplus.vn/cuoc-gap-thuong-dinh-my-trung-ben-le-apec-2025-diem-dung-chien-thuat-post1073899.vnp)). President Trump made no mention of progress on two of the most sensitive topics: the future of the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok in the U.S. and American export controls on advanced semiconductors, such as Nvidia's Blackwell AI chips. These issues represent the core of the technological \"decoupling\" debate and are seen by Washington as critical national security concerns.\n\nBeijing, for its part, had a list of demands that were not met, including the lifting of U.S. export controls on sensitive technology and the removal of tariffs related to its industrial policies ([Viettimes, 2025](https://viettimes.vn/thuong-dinh-trumptap-o-han-quoc-co-hoi-cham-dut-chien-tranh-lanh-thuong-mai-my-trung-post191040.html)). The failure to address these points indicates that the chasm between the two sides on the future of technology and global supply chains remains as wide as ever. The agreement on soybeans and fentanyl is relatively simple, whereas the conflict over technology involves complex issues of intellectual property, national security, and the race for global dominance in the 21st century. By avoiding these topics, the leaders secured a temporary calm but left the primary drivers of the conflict to fester. This strategic omission ensures that while trade in agricultural goods may stabilize for a year, the \"tech war\" will continue unabated, likely leading to future confrontations once the political utility of the current truce has expired. The deal effectively places a bandage on a superficial wound while ignoring the critical underlying condition.\n\n### Trump's \"Quick Strike\" Diplomacy vs. China's Long Game\n\nThe Busan agreement is seen by many analysts as a classic example of President Trump's distinct diplomatic style, which has been described as a \"đánh nhanh, rút gọn\" (quick strike, quick withdrawal) strategy ([Dân trí, 2025a](https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/ly-do-ong-trump-lua-chon-chien-thuat-danh-nhanh-rut-gon-trong-xung-dot-20250628092238874.htm)). This approach, observed in his handling of conflicts in the Middle East, prioritizes demonstrating strength through decisive action and then quickly pivoting to negotiations to claim a victory and avoid prolonged entanglement. As noted by expert Vali Nasr, \"Trump has always wanted the U.S. to show strength without having to pay the price of long-term wars\" ([Dân trí, 2025a](https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/ly-do-ong-trump-lua-chon-chien-thuat-danh-nhanh-rut-gon-trong-xung-dot-20250628092238874.htm)). In the context of the trade war, the years of escalating tariffs served as the \"quick strike,\" inflicting economic pain on China. The Busan meeting represents the \"quick withdrawal\" into a deal-making phase, allowing him to declare the meeting a \"12 out of 10\" success and announce a tangible agreement, however temporary it may be ([Soha, 2025a](https://soha.vn/gap-truc-tiep-ong-tap-sau-6-nam-tong-thong-trump-tim-co-hoi-dinh-chien-thuong-mai-198251030111352927.htm)).\n\nThis strategy can also be viewed through the lens of creating a \"sự đã rồi\" (fait accompli), a tactic Trump employed in Gaza peace negotiations ([VnExpress, 2025](https://vnexpress.net/cach-ong-trump-tao-su-da-roi-cho-thoa-thuan-hoa-binh-gaza-4949518.html)). By announcing a deal is in place, he generates immense pressure on the other party to follow through and solidifies a narrative of success. His declaration that \"we have a deal\" on trade with China, made before all complexities are resolved, fits this pattern. This approach contrasts sharply with what is often perceived as China's more patient, long-term strategic orientation. While Trump seeks immediate, transactional wins, Beijing is often seen as playing a longer game, willing to absorb short-term costs to achieve its overarching goals of technological self-sufficiency and regional dominance. By agreeing to this tactical pause, China buys itself another year of relative stability to advance these long-term objectives, weathering the storm of Trump's disruptive tactics while ceding little on its core strategic interests. The dynamic, therefore, is one of a U.S. leader focused on a short-term, politically advantageous truce and a Chinese leader leveraging that desire for a pause to further a multi-decade strategic vision."
}