{
  "Boosting Exports and Domestic Consumption": "## Boosting Exports and Domestic Consumption\n\n### Export Performance and Strategic Reorientation\n\nVietnam has set an ambitious GDP growth target of 8-8.5% for 2025, a goal deemed achievable by the Prime Minister, Pham Minh Chinh ([baochinhphu.vn](https://baochinhphu.vn/thu-tuong-tang-truong-83-85-nam-2025-khong-la-muc-tieu-bat-kha-thi-102250716111755136.htm), [en.vietnamplus.vn](https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-takes-steps-to-realise-8385-growth-target-in-2025-post323574.vnp)). To realize this objective, authorities are concentrating on bolstering traditional growth drivers, with exports and domestic consumption identified as critical pillars ([en.vietnamplus.vn](https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-takes-steps-to-realise-8385-growth-target-in-2025-post323574.vnp), [en.vietnamplus.vn](https://en.vietnamplus.vn/investment-export-consumption-to-propel-gdp-growth-insiders-post291338.vnp)). The robust economic performance in 2024, characterized by a 7.1% GDP growth, was significantly propelled by strong exports, resilient foreign direct investment (FDI), and supportive policies ([vietnamnet.vn](https://vietnamnet.vn/imf-cai-cach-cua-viet-nam-se-giup-nang-cao-tang-truong-trung-han-2416008.html)). This momentum continued into the first quarter of 2025, with economic activity expanding at a rate of 6.9% year-on-year ([vietnamnet.vn](https://vietnamnet.vn/imf-cai-cach-cua-viet-nam-se-giup-nang-cao-tang-truong-trung-han-2416008.html)).\n\nExports constitute a substantial portion of Vietnam's economy, with total export turnover accounting for approximately 90% of its GDP, positioning it as the second-highest in ASEAN after Singapore (174%) and significantly surpassing Malaysia (69%) ([thitruongtaichinhtiente.vn](https://thitruongtaichinhtiente.vn/to-chuc-quoc-te-lac-quan-ve-muc-tieu-tang-truong-gdp-nam-2025-tu-8-tro-len-cua-viet-nam-65967.html)). The United States remains Vietnam's largest export market, absorbing about 30% of its total export value ([thitruongtaichinhtiente.vn](https://thitruongtaichinhtiente.vn/to-chuc-quoc-te-lac-quan-ve-muc-tieu-tang-truong-gdp-nam-2025-tu-8-tro-len-cua-viet-nam-65967.html)). For the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam's export-import turnover witnessed a notable increase of 16.3% ([voz.vn](https://voz.vn/t/toan-nen-kinh-te-huong-%C4%91en-muc-tieu-tang-truong-8-3-8-5.1132934/)), contributing to an estimated trade surplus of 10.2 billion USD during the same period ([voz.vn](https://voz.vn/t/toan-nen-kinh-te-huong-%C4%91en-muc-tieu-tang-truong-8-3-8-5.1132934/)). The government aims for an overall export growth of over 12% for the entire year, which is expected to be a key contributor to achieving the 8.3-8.5% GDP growth target for 2025 and paving the way for double-digit growth in subsequent years ([nld.com.vn](https://nld.com.vn/dong-luc-cho-tang-truong-gdp-83-85-vuot-qua-thach-thuc-cuoi-nam-196250925213422039.htm)).\n\nA significant portion of this export growth, particularly in high-tech sectors, has been driven by the foreign-invested enterprise (FIE) sector, presenting a challenge for the domestic private sector to enhance its competitiveness and integration into global value chains ([nld.com.vn](https://nld.com.vn/dong-luc-cho-tang-truong-gdp-83-85-vuot-qua-thach-thuc-cuoi-nam-196250925213422039.htm)). In response to these dynamics, a strategic reorientation of Vietnam's export model is underway. Experts advocate for a shift from merely expanding scale and turnover to prioritizing quality, added value, and self-reliance ([nld.com.vn](https://nld.com.vn/dong-luc-cho-tang-truong-gdp-83-85-vuot-qua-thach-thuc-cuoi-nam-196250925213422039.htm)). This involves increasing the localization rate through the development of supporting industries, focusing on brand building, investing in technological innovation, and elevating quality standards to meet the stringent requirements of major markets such as the EU, US, and Japan concerning environmental, labor, and traceability issues ([nld.com.vn](https://nld.com.vn/dong-luc-cho-tang-truong-gdp-83-85-vuot-qua-thach-thuc-cuoi-nam-196250925213422039.htm)).\n\nAgricultural exports are projected to reach 8 billion USD in 2025, marking a 10% increase from 2024, with key contributions from durian, banana, mango, and coconut ([nld.com.vn](https://nld.com.vn/dong-luc-cho-tang-truong-gdp-83-85-vuot-qua-thach-thuc-cuoi-nam-196250925213422039.htm)). However, challenges persist, particularly regarding administrative procedures for granting planting area codes and the issue of Value Added Tax (VAT) for agricultural exports. Recommendations include exempting VAT for exported agricultural products or applying a low rate of 0.5% to simplify processes and avoid complexities associated with tax refunds ([nld.com.vn](https://nld.com.vn/dong-luc-cho-tang-truong-gdp-83-85-vuot-qua-thach-thuc-cuoi-nam-196250925213422039.htm)).\n\n### Navigating Global Trade Headwinds\n\nDespite the positive export performance, Vietnam's trade sector faces significant global headwinds that could impede its growth trajectory. The international environment is marked by increasing global trade tensions, rising protectionism, and a growing trend of export controls and investigations, particularly from major trading partners like the United States ([vietnamnet.vn](https://vietnamnet.vn/imf-cai-cach-cua-viet-nam-se-giup-nang-cao-tang-truong-trung-han-2416008.html), [nld.com.vn](https://nld.com.vn/dong-luc-cho-tang-truong-gdp-83-85-vuot-qua-thach-thuc-cuoi-nam-196250925213422039.htm)). The potential imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US and restrictions on high-tech exports pose substantial risks to Vietnam's growth prospects ([vietnamnet.vn](https://vietnamnet.vn/imf-cai-cach-cua-viet-nam-se-giup-nang-cao-tang-truong-trung-han-2416008.html), [thitruongtaichinhtiente.vn](https://thitruongtaichinhtiente.vn/to-chuc-quoc-te-lac-quan-ve-muc-tieu-tang-truong-gdp-nam-2025-tu-8-tro-len-cua-viet-nam-65967.html)). For instance, Fitch Ratings projected that if reciprocal tariffs were applied, Vietnam's GDP growth could decrease from 7.1% in 2024 to 5.6% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026 ([vietnamnet.vn](https://vietnamnet.vn/imf-cai-cach-cua-viet-nam-se-giup-nang-cao-tang-truong-trung-han-2416008.html)). Other institutions like Bloomberg, Aureus Sigma Capital, VPBankS, and BMI Research also forecast significant reductions in GDP growth under such scenarios, ranging from 1.4-2.0% annually or even up to 3 percentage points lower than initial forecasts ([vietnamnet.vn](https://vietnamnet.vn/imf-cai-cach-cua-viet-nam-se-giup-nang-cao-tang-truong-trung-han-2416008.html)).The IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook report, which assumed high tariffs would take effect from Q3 2025, projected Vietnam's economic growth to slow to 5.4% for the entire year and further decelerate in 2026 ([vietnamnet.vn](https://vietnamnet.vn/imf-cai-cach-cua-viet-nam-se-giup-nang-cao-tang"
}