{
  "Commercial Bank Economic Assessments (HSBC, Standard Chartered)": "## Commercial Bank Economic Assessments (HSBC, Standard Chartered)\n\n### Standard Chartered's Revised 2025 Projections and Underlying Analysis\n\nStandard Chartered, a prominent international financial institution, has recently adjusted its economic forecasts for Vietnam for the year 2025. The bank revised its projection for Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth downwards to 6.1%, representing a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from its previous forecast of 6.7% ([voz.vn/t/sau-adb-den-luot-standard-chartered-ha-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/](https://voz.vn/t/sau-adb-%C4%91en-luot-standard-chartered-ha-%C4%91ieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/)). This adjustment indicates a more conservative outlook compared to earlier expectations.\n\nDelving deeper into the annual projection, Standard Chartered anticipates a significant deceleration in growth during the latter half of 2025. The bank forecasts a growth rate of 4.9% for the second half of the year, following a robust 7.5% expansion observed in the first half of 2025 ([voz.vn/t/sau-adb-den-luot-standard-chartered-ha-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/](https://voz.vn/t/sau-adb-%C4%91en-luot-standard-chartered-ha-%C4%91ieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/)). While the report did not explicitly state specific reasons for this particular downward revision in GDP growth, it highlighted other macroeconomic trends.\n\nIn addition to GDP, Standard Chartered also lowered its inflation forecast for Vietnam in 2025. The new projection stands at 3.5%, a reduction from the previously anticipated 3.8% ([voz.vn/t/sau-adb-den-luot-standard-chartered-ha-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/](https://voz.vn/t/sau-adb-%C4%91en-luot-standard-chartered-ha-%C4%91ieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/)). This adjustment reflects a trend of moderating inflation in recent months, with headline inflation consistently remaining below the 4.0% year-on-year threshold for eleven consecutive months leading up to June. This sustained period of lower inflation could potentially limit the scope for further monetary easing and encourage policymakers to maintain a more neutral stance ([voz.vn/t/sau-adb-den-luot-standard-chartered-ha-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/](https://voz.vn/t/sau-adb-%C4%91en-luot-standard-chartered-ha-%C4%91ieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/)).\n\nDespite the revised forecasts, Standard Chartered maintains that Vietnam's fundamental macroeconomic factors remain stable, even with signs of a slowdown in the short-term trade outlook. The bank noted an improvement in exports during early 2025, contributing to a moderate trade surplus. Concurrently, imports have also seen an increase, primarily concentrated in raw materials, manufacturing equipment, and components, suggesting ongoing industrial activity and investment ([voz.vn/t/sau-adb-den-luot-standard-chartered-ha-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/](https://voz.vn/t/sau-adb-%C4%91en-luot-standard-chartered-ha-%C4%91ieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/)).\n\nMr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered Bank, expressed a positive long-term view, stating that Vietnam's trade outlook remains promising, driven by a strong recovery in exports and tourism. He acknowledged that while some domestic and international economic indicators might experience a short-term slowdown, this situation also presents an opportunity for the State Bank of Vietnam to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves. Overall, Mr. Leelahaphan affirmed confidence in Vietnam's robust foundations, believing they will enable the nation to navigate upcoming challenges and sustain its growth momentum ([voz.vn/t/sau-adb-den-luot-standard-chartered-ha-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/](https://voz.vn/t/sau-adb-%C4%91en-luot-standard-chartered-ha-%C4%91ieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/)).\n\n### Comparison of Commercial Bank Forecasts with Government Targets for 2025\n\nThe economic assessments from commercial banks such as Standard Chartered present a notable divergence from the ambitious growth targets set by the Vietnamese government for 2025. On July 16, 2025, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính reiterated the national objectives, which include achieving a GDP growth rate of 8.3-8.5% for 2025 and aiming for 10% or higher in 2026, alongside controlling inflation at approximately below 4.5% ([baochinhphu.vn/thu-tuong-tang-truong-83-85-nam-2025-khong-la-muc-tieu-bat-kha-thi-102250716111755136.htm](https://baochinhphu.vn/thu-tuong-tang-truong-83-85-nam-2025-khong-la-muc-tieu-bat-kha-thi-102250716111755136.htm)). These targets were further formalized by the government's Resolution No. 226/NQ-CP on August 5, 2025, which outlines key tasks and solutions to ensure the 2025 growth target of 8.3-8.5% ([xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn/nghi-quyet-so-226-nq-cp-ve-muc-tieu-tang-truong-va-cac-nhiem-vu-giai-phap-bao-dam-tang-truong-nam-2025-dat-83-85-119250806071422855.htm](https://xaydungchinhsach.chinhphu.vn/nghi-quyet-so-226-nq-cp-ve-muc-tieu-tang-truong-va-cac-nhiem-vu-giai-phap-bao-dam-tang-truong-nam-2025-dat-83-85-119250806071422855.htm)).\n\nA direct comparison of these figures reveals a significant gap:\n\n| Indicator | Standard Chartered Forecast (2025) | Vietnamese Government Target (2025) | Difference |\n| :---------------- | :--------------------------------- | :----------------------------------- | :--------- |\n| GDP Growth        | 6.1% ([voz.vn/t/sau-adb-den-luot-standard-chartered-ha-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/](https://voz.vn/t/sau-adb-%C4%91en-luot-standard-chartered-ha-%C4%91ieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/)) | 8.3-8.5% ([baochinhphu.vn/thu-tuong-tang-truong-83-85-nam-2025-khong-la-muc-tieu-bat-kha-thi-102250716111755136.htm](https://baochinhphu.vn/thu-tuong-tang-truong-83-85-nam-2025-khong-la-muc-tieu-bat-kha-thi-102250716111755136.htm)) | 2.2-2.4 percentage points |\n| Inflation         | 3.5% ([voz.vn/t/sau-adb-den-luot-standard-chartered-ha-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam.1128823/](https://voz.vn/t/sau-adb-%C4%91en-luot-standard-chartered-ha-%C4%91ieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong"
}